Would be quite a unique event for the entire global market to have a Japan experience simultaneously ....Now do a Japanese investor in 1989 then explain why that can't happen in the US or even globally... And then explain why someone has to value the additional dollar above the 2.2% as worth more than any possibility of being below it - is there some law of economics that doesn't allow them that utility curve?Maybe one very important point people are missing when considering populating a 20-30 year ladder with a stock index:
Each of those successive 10 years (20+ years from now) is going to have a different result....
So even if you're the unluckiest guy who populated his entire 20-30 year stock ladder in August, 1929, every year except 1949 had a positive result...
And in fact every year, except 1949, significantly out-performed a 2.2% TIPS....
If you want to confirm this for yourself, play with the SP500 returns calculator I posted just a little while ago...
As for the note you're replying to, if I get the energy for it, I might run some numbers for each rung of a stock populated ladder for years 21-30....
We already know that worst case for 20 years is to break-even, and from McQ's rolling returns chart it looks like worst case for 30 years since 1900 was close to 3%.....but would be interesting to quantify worst case for the other durations....
Has anyone already run these...?
Statistics: Posted by CraigTester — Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:57 pm — Replies 162 — Views 9872