Which is exactly why I have some ex-US in my portfolio.Exactly. Why does it have to be like the past?Why does it have to be like the past. Even a tiny amount of outperformance is better than none. We can’t talk politics here but to make it simple, there are countries in Ex-US that make doing business and creating profit continually more and more difficult over the decades. Although those events are occurring in the US, the US tends to be behind by about 10-15 years giving the US a consistent advantage.For US to continue outperforming like it has the last thirty years, US PE would need to more than double to 70-80 while exUS would have to half to single digit PEs of 7-8I get that. But what does that mean?
The vast majority of US outperformance since 1990 is not fundamentally driven but rather the relative change in valuations, and more recently Japan has had superior earnings growth over the last decade
I’m not investing in just Japan we invest in exUS which is everything plus Japan. Also does that mean American outperformance won’t continue over the average of the next 40 years? I am willing to say no and tilt US. I can be wrong which is why I still hold some international.
All the narratives of superior US businesses, workers, laws could be true and the US could still dramatically underperform exUS for decades like has happened
Statistics: Posted by EnjoyIt — Mon Sep 02, 2024 4:00 pm — Replies 6788 — Views 1662735