Assumptions and inputs.
What they ask you for, and what they don't ask you for (assumptions).
How they ask you, so that you can find where to enter it.
Accuracy, uncertainty, and consistency of what you enter (lots of ways to ask for your assumed future expected return)
Different monte carlo algorithms using different parameters and scenarios
And so forth.
Unlikely there are 1+1=3 errors on any of these, and if they are they will get fixed.
Use for entertainment purposes only. Spend hours learning the tool. As a backup do 3% and 4% SWR calculation. The resulting bracket may be just as accurate.
I can understand why the review was done, but at the same time it perpetuates the idea that plugging and chugging on numbers can predict the future. It can't.
What they ask you for, and what they don't ask you for (assumptions).
How they ask you, so that you can find where to enter it.
Accuracy, uncertainty, and consistency of what you enter (lots of ways to ask for your assumed future expected return)
Different monte carlo algorithms using different parameters and scenarios
And so forth.
Unlikely there are 1+1=3 errors on any of these, and if they are they will get fixed.
Use for entertainment purposes only. Spend hours learning the tool. As a backup do 3% and 4% SWR calculation. The resulting bracket may be just as accurate.
I can understand why the review was done, but at the same time it perpetuates the idea that plugging and chugging on numbers can predict the future. It can't.
Statistics: Posted by stan1 — Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:39 am — Replies 11 — Views 776