I don't have a whole lot on this, but there is one study that I like to reference that shows just how many of the cases are similar. They showed the 'Safe", the 10th percentile, and then the number of failures at 4% and also at 5%. This is from Advisor Perspectives here linked below. There are format issues with the tables that you have to figure out on your own.Great post. I've wanted to do this analysis myself.
I'd love to see a sensitivity analysis on how things like if, for the y-axis, instead of picking the worst case, you pick the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th worst case.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/art ... awal-rates
Go to figure 1 at the end of this article. What you see here is just how often is 4% the number, and the answer is pretty often. Lows are long and peaks are short. "Domestic" here is USA.
I would post figure 1 here, but sadly imgur has gone the way of photobucket.
Statistics: Posted by firebirdparts — Tue Apr 02, 2024 1:11 pm — Replies 19 — Views 1513