It's half way through the year and with a little artificial intelligence your portfolio could have really outperformed, continuing the trend from earlier this year. AI-related Big Tech stocks and chip manufacturers were big winners (NVDA especially, +150%) and we now have a handful of stocks in the contest with over 100% gains for the year. Even our more staid total market benchmark VTI is up +13%.
In addition, during May we saw a resurgence of activity in various "meme stocks" when Roaring Kitty, a prominent online cheerleader for Gamestop back in 2021, came out of his online retirement to post cryptic pictures and videos and massively move the markets for GME and AMC stock among others. His personal net worth peaked at over $1B based on his reported holdings and in any event he likely cashed in several $100M worth of gains this year. Although no one bet on GME or AMC this time around, Kitty recently posted a picture of a cartoon dog and significantly move the price against one of our unlucky short sellers who bet against Petco (WOOF). Strange times.
Current Standings - 2024 hedge fund contest
It's a bull market in crypto as well as AI/tech, and our 1st place leader clast bet big on Bitcoin via MSTR stock.
2024 Q2 Leaders
1st: +130% clast, The Rat Poison Fund, for his sole crypto bet on Microstrategy (MSTR)
2nd: +97% Tanelorn, Tanelorn Capital, for his sole short of Tio Group (TIOG), an accounting fraud
3rd: +71% StatisticsAreMe, Ouija Board Biotech Fund, for their long basket of biotech stocks (esp ADMA and GERN)
4th: +62% VFANX, Bit O' Pig Saylor Fund, for a thoughtful collection of long and short picks, including MSTR (crypto)
5th: +61% 9Iron, Randolph Mortimer Venture Fund, for long computer/tech basket and an EV short too (esp NVDA)
One thing that impressed me about several of the top leaders is that they were not just picking a single stock, but many had 3-4 picks and often all were solid winners rather than just one apparently lucky one among a less impressive mix. Consistency is a very valuable quality in a portfolio manager and both VFANX and 9Iron are doing quite well on this front.
Current Standings - 2023 hedge fund contest
Here's a recap of the huge winners, stocks up over 100% so far in the contest:
---
Overall, our portfolio managers have been making gains, but trailing the market. Compared to the total market benchmark of around +12%, our average fund is up 7% or about a -5% underperformance on average (before fees, of course). The short-only funds have done better, despite some spectacular losses, with an average of +24%, while the average long-only fund is up +11% just a hair below the index. The more diversified funds have done less well and those with the full complement of 6 picks are actually down -2% overall.
On the long side, the best pick was Carvana (CVNA), chosen long only by MudPuppy, up +166%. Carvana was also chosen as a short by 4 less than happy other portfolio managers, as it has remained a popular short for several years and continues to defy negative expectations. The
worst performing longs are Pacific Biosciences (PACB) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) both at -82%, a biotech and a space company both with serious troubles. Gash did pick SPCE as a successful short, but the other managers involved were on the wrong side of these losers.
The best short pick is now Tingo Group (TIOG), mentioned above and down 97% on fraud and accounting woes. They have since been delisted. The worst short was Carvana, also the best long, for the reasons discussed above.
Mudpuppy is winning the diversified manger award, up +47% and the best among everyone who selected all 6 possible stocks.
We have previously given an award for consistency to those who do well while having all 6 stocks up, but as of now, none of our contestants have managed to pull that off.
Congratulations and good luck to all!
In addition, during May we saw a resurgence of activity in various "meme stocks" when Roaring Kitty, a prominent online cheerleader for Gamestop back in 2021, came out of his online retirement to post cryptic pictures and videos and massively move the markets for GME and AMC stock among others. His personal net worth peaked at over $1B based on his reported holdings and in any event he likely cashed in several $100M worth of gains this year. Although no one bet on GME or AMC this time around, Kitty recently posted a picture of a cartoon dog and significantly move the price against one of our unlucky short sellers who bet against Petco (WOOF). Strange times.
Current Standings - 2024 hedge fund contest
It's a bull market in crypto as well as AI/tech, and our 1st place leader clast bet big on Bitcoin via MSTR stock.
2024 Q2 Leaders
1st: +130% clast, The Rat Poison Fund, for his sole crypto bet on Microstrategy (MSTR)
2nd: +97% Tanelorn, Tanelorn Capital, for his sole short of Tio Group (TIOG), an accounting fraud
3rd: +71% StatisticsAreMe, Ouija Board Biotech Fund, for their long basket of biotech stocks (esp ADMA and GERN)
4th: +62% VFANX, Bit O' Pig Saylor Fund, for a thoughtful collection of long and short picks, including MSTR (crypto)
5th: +61% 9Iron, Randolph Mortimer Venture Fund, for long computer/tech basket and an EV short too (esp NVDA)
One thing that impressed me about several of the top leaders is that they were not just picking a single stock, but many had 3-4 picks and often all were solid winners rather than just one apparently lucky one among a less impressive mix. Consistency is a very valuable quality in a portfolio manager and both VFANX and 9Iron are doing quite well on this front.
Current Standings - 2023 hedge fund contest
Here's a recap of the huge winners, stocks up over 100% so far in the contest:
Code:
gain ticker business [as of Q2]-------------------------------------------------+166% CVNAonline car sales, meme stock+156% SMCIcomputer hardware (AI theme)+136% NVDAcomputer hardware (AI theme)+130% MSTRcrypto holdings+132% ADMAbiotech (FDA approvals)Overall, our portfolio managers have been making gains, but trailing the market. Compared to the total market benchmark of around +12%, our average fund is up 7% or about a -5% underperformance on average (before fees, of course). The short-only funds have done better, despite some spectacular losses, with an average of +24%, while the average long-only fund is up +11% just a hair below the index. The more diversified funds have done less well and those with the full complement of 6 picks are actually down -2% overall.
On the long side, the best pick was Carvana (CVNA), chosen long only by MudPuppy, up +166%. Carvana was also chosen as a short by 4 less than happy other portfolio managers, as it has remained a popular short for several years and continues to defy negative expectations. The
worst performing longs are Pacific Biosciences (PACB) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) both at -82%, a biotech and a space company both with serious troubles. Gash did pick SPCE as a successful short, but the other managers involved were on the wrong side of these losers.
The best short pick is now Tingo Group (TIOG), mentioned above and down 97% on fraud and accounting woes. They have since been delisted. The worst short was Carvana, also the best long, for the reasons discussed above.
Mudpuppy is winning the diversified manger award, up +47% and the best among everyone who selected all 6 possible stocks.
We have previously given an award for consistency to those who do well while having all 6 stocks up, but as of now, none of our contestants have managed to pull that off.
Congratulations and good luck to all!
Statistics: Posted by Tanelorn — Mon Jul 01, 2024 1:01 am — Replies 162 — Views 46177