Personal Investments • Need suggestions on calculator and potential advisor service

I am deeply concerned over having my money last through retirement.

While I like eMoney, I prefer to have a calculator where I can control the variables. Therefore, I have been running my own calculations with various 4% rule calculators including Bankrate’s and Schwab’s. I now have analysis paralysis as I receive mixed results ranging from I will be significantly short in retirement income to “right on target!”

Can anyone recommend a better calculator that I can maintain over time where I control the inflation rate and both pre and post retirement returns?

It's quite likely that Bankrate's calculator assumes a straight-line growth rate that you input, which is ok for a very rough estimate, but if your primary concern is about "having my money last," then a Monte Carlo model that provides a portfolio survival rate over many trials is likely the best tool. Monte Carlo tools I've recommended in the past:

Portfolio Visualizer's Monte Carlo (I like this one best),
FiCalc (probably easiest to use and supports VPW if you're not planning to leave a big legacy),
TPAW (also supports VPW and seems very comprehensive), and
FireCalc.

PortfolioVisualizer also offers a multi-stage Financial Goals Monte Carlo that allows for accumulation over the next 4 years until you retire, and then a glide-path on your asset allocation (starting portfolio and ending portfolio). Perhaps this offers more control than what eMoney is giving you.

There are also relatively low-cost paid alternatives to eMoney. Paid models sometimes cited here include Boldin (formerly NewRetirement) and Pralana Gold as well as many others (just citing these not recommending for or against on any of these).

If you are handy with Excel, you could modify the inputs and/or formulas in my Monte Carlo sheets to model pretty much anything you can think of.

Data and Models I use for Monte Carlo:
NYU Data Set 1928-2017 with Model Fits
Accumulation Monte Carlo
Withdrawal Monte Carlo

You'll need a MS Excel license; download to your local machine and enable macros (required for the 1,000 random trials and results aggregation). Images of the Accumulation and Withdrawal Monte Carlos (from prior posters' questions) are below so you can see the canned input (that again you could modify if you're good with Excel).

This poster had a glide-path in Accumulation from 90/10 down to 70/30 and then halted contributions at age 54, but didn't tap the portfolio until age 59 (5th percentile balance reached $4.7M which was then used for withdrawal planning).


This poster was concerned about running out of money given a higher initial spend rate until SocSec kicked in at year-8 in early retirement. The success rate for their spend plan and AA was around 97% which gave them confidence to move ahead.


I ran the Withdrawal model on your initial balance of $1.75M (assumes zero growth over next 4 years) with a 4% initial withdrawal, +3%/yr for inflation, and a 27 year period (to age 95) for a 60/40 AA that's gliding down on stocks by -0.5%/yr and got a 95.2% survival rate (±0.7%). That suggests you don't really need to worry about running out of money, but of course you could assume higher inflation adjustments and a different asset allocation over time, plus the contributions & growth of your portfolio over the next 4 years.


Excel modifications can be complicated, so if you're not comfortable with using the sheets "as is" or with only very minor adjustments (or you don't have an Excel license), then I'd probably stick to one of the web-based models. I'm also happy to run a specific analysis for you, but I think you're looking for a tool you can play with and "maintain" yourself.

Statistics: Posted by midwest60 — Tue Sep 24, 2024 5:52 pm — Replies 5 — Views 515