It seems to me, as a third party observer, that you and lazydavid are each arguing a different point. Lazydavid's point that auto depreciation is generally a pseudo-exponential process in which the drop in residual value is smaller with each subsequent year, barring an accident or other similar non-routine issue. Your point that a vehicle could have a given value at any point is correct, but so is his point that there really aren't any cases in which the route to that residual value should be expected to be anything other than the normal depreciation curve (unless one has a crystal ball and can predict major disruptors of future used auto prices like the pandemic supply chain turmoil or something affecting specific vehicle residuals like Tesla's price drops a few years ago).I don't know how many private car sales you went through, but I happened to resell a few BMWs & Audis. Except in 2021, it is rarely the jackpot when there is plenty of supply.
A 2019 X3 sDrive30 fair condition & normal mileage traded-in is around $16000, private resell is $18500. MSRP of a 2022 over 2019 increased by around 6%. So that $18500 would be now $19600 if sold privately. Otherwise
https://www.edmunds.com/bmw/x3/2019/appraisal-value/
So yes, $20000 still stands, especially for a sDrive30. If traded-in, likely to be $17000.
Statistics: Posted by cmr79 — Sat Sep 28, 2024 6:50 pm — Replies 88 — Views 6857